lake powell water level forecast 2022

The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. Water managers, who . A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use endstream endobj startxref While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. But it is concerning. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. The peak inflow to Lake Powell occurs in mid- to late spring, as the winter snow in the Rocky Mountains melts. 04:18 . On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). google_ad_type = "text_image"; U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). //2006-10-04: news U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. //-->, Printable Version In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. It can store about five times the average annual flow. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. google_ad_width = 160; As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. This is the big warning bell.. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. %%EOF (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; 04:12 - Source: CNN The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. google_ad_height = 600; Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. We are 37% through the Water Year. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. As the forecast season progresses, Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . By Leia Larsen. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Climate change also plays a part. The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. google_color_url = "426C95"; A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. WEco is funded by multiple donors. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. Lake Powell